{"id":242881,"date":"2022-05-26T16:00:48","date_gmt":"2022-05-26T15:00:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/elementum.pt\/2022\/05\/26\/moodys-mantem-rating-da-divida-publica-portuguesa\/"},"modified":"2022-08-01T12:30:46","modified_gmt":"2022-08-01T11:30:46","slug":"moodys-mantem-rating-da-divida-publica-portuguesa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/elementum.pt\/pt-pt\/moodys-mantem-rating-da-divida-publica-portuguesa\/","title":{"rendered":"Moody\u2019s Mant\u00e9m Rating da D\u00edvida P\u00fablica Portuguesa"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><span><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/elementum.pt\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/MoodyE28099s-1.png\" width=\"600\" height=\"250\" alt=\"\" \/><br \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\"><br \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\">Na sexta-feira passada, a ag\u00eancia declassifica\u00e7\u00e3o de risco Moody\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/eco.sapo.pt\/2022\/05\/20\/moodys-mantem-inalterado-rating-de-portugal\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">manteve<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\">&nbsp;o rating da d\u00edvida p\u00fablica de Portugalem Baa2 (no <a href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi7qccUXRWGNInRkQ7j5c6byL20QbKDm1Y1q6g3Y9HxNwgwXRjNrTC-W6WACHTrTTkgE9U7e2qa-GT2xG8zzv4em7BQhZKqpf6yYGoDDdBmaG9whKEyyWyNbMByfCgVpE47rLdkx4-bLzl02GVPxGxcHKW-tPH_8PrQpFdphSoyD5hA6d_-CkOPBNYWcQ\/s2281\/A.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">n\u00edvel de risco de cr\u00e9dito moderado<\/a>),com perspetiva est\u00e1vel.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><span><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\"><br \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><span><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\">Em mar\u00e7o deste ano, a Standard &amp; Poor\u2019s(outra ag\u00eancia de classifica\u00e7\u00e3o de risco americana) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.elementum.pt\/pt\/noticias\/sp-mantem-rating-da-divida-publica-portuguesa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">tamb\u00e9m manteve o rating dad\u00edvida p\u00fablica portuguesa<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\">. Neste caso, em BBB, <a href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjFkYoLyDaJkJsnr-bOzuZthQlYBVECdWlfZnkIPHOwSm1arLd5hRf3DKvSKmvIdMXPGPfXm03tFmrgPrYjtQe4fADoy6GIbtfSZx74l4MNlBOzf_AGRFO-PLZ3DbuIi_RdwwWWOjgWz6CGjgjPafSjBvSCmCXmiLlxnm8o6FeuZFw6mW_fgCgJ5StIcQ\/s607\/B.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">n\u00edvel equivalente ao Baa2 da Moody\u2019s<\/a>.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><span><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\"><br \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\">Em 17 de setembro de 2021, a Moody\u2019s aumentouo rating da d\u00edvida p\u00fablica portuguesa de Baa3 para Baa2. Naquele momento, aMoody\u2019s justificou este aumento com a expectativa de melhoria do crescimento daeconomia no longo prazo e a confian\u00e7a de que a d\u00edvida p\u00fablica iria voltar \u00e0trajet\u00f3ria descendente.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\"><br \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\">A pr\u00f3xima avalia\u00e7\u00e3o da d\u00edvida p\u00fablicaportuguesa pela Moody\u2019s est\u00e1 prevista para 18 de novembro deste ano.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\"><br \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><span><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\">S&amp;P, Moody\u2019s e Fitch (ag\u00eancias americanas)e DBRS (ag\u00eancia canadense) s\u00e3o as principais ag\u00eancias de classifica\u00e7\u00e3o de riscodo mundo. Por\u00e9m, n\u00e3o s\u00e3o isentas de erros. Um exemplo \u00e9 o dos CDO\u2019s, na bolhaimobili\u00e1ria da d\u00e9cada de 2000 nos EUA, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mises.org.br\/Article.aspx?id=1696\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">explicado pelo economista Leandro Roque<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\">. Para compreender isto, \u00e9 necess\u00e1rio descrever o processo de securitiza\u00e7\u00e3o dosempr\u00e9stimos imobili\u00e1rios (atrav\u00e9s do qual ativos detidos por Fannie Mae eFreddie Mac eram reunidos e revendidos a investidores e institui\u00e7\u00f5es financeirasnacionais e estrangeiras). Por\u00e9m, havia a jun\u00e7\u00e3o de ativos de baixo risco(mutu\u00e1rios com bom hist\u00f3rico de cr\u00e9dito) e de alto risco (mutu\u00e1rios comhist\u00f3rico ruim ou inexistente). Esta jun\u00e7\u00e3o formava o derivado chamadoCollateralized Debt Obligation (CDO). Desta forma, estas institui\u00e7\u00f5esaumentaram suas alavancagens e risco de fal\u00eancia, pois detinham, em seusbalan\u00e7os, ativos altamente arriscados.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><span><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\"><br \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\">Estes ativos recebiam classifica\u00e7\u00e3o de riscom\u00e1xima, a chamada \u2018grau de investimento\u2019 (S&amp;P e Fitch: AAA; Moody\u2019s: Aaa).Estas ag\u00eancias s\u00e3o estritamente reguladas pela SEC (Securities and ExchangeCommission), com poder para limitar a entrada de concorrentes neste mercado,atrav\u00e9s de longos processos burocr\u00e1ticos-regulat\u00f3rios que impedem o surgimentode concorr\u00eancia. Desta forma, n\u00e3o possuem incentivos para rebaixar asclassifica\u00e7\u00f5es de ativos que prejudicariam direta ou indiretamente o governo(como as Mortgage Backed Securities \u2013 MBS\u2019s, ativos hipotec\u00e1rios cujavaloriza\u00e7\u00e3o ocorria em fun\u00e7\u00e3o da expans\u00e3o monet\u00e1ria) pois \u00e9 este quem permiteque operem em um ambiente n\u00e3o concorrencial, sem o qual poderiam perder seusaltos lucros.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\"><br \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\">Por\u00e9m, isto n\u00e3o tira a relev\u00e2ncia do papeldestas ag\u00eancias no mercado financeiro. A classifica\u00e7\u00e3o de risco da d\u00edvida de umpa\u00eds influencia a tomada de decis\u00e3o de investimentos no mesmo, sobretudo porparte dos investidores estrangeiros, que t\u00eam em aten\u00e7\u00e3o o comportamento dad\u00edvida devido ao risco que esta representa aos investimentos. Se a d\u00edvidacresce sem uma m\u00ednima sustentabilidade vis\u00edvel, aumentam as chances, porexemplo, de haver mais desvaloriza\u00e7\u00e3o da moeda, pois o governo pode vir a n\u00e3opoder arcar com os custos da d\u00edvida (j\u00e1 que a despesa com juros aumenta) e obanco central pode monetiz\u00e1-la, desvalorizando a moeda e diminuindo os retornosreais dos investimentos (sobretudo os de longo prazo, que s\u00e3o mais produtivos etrazem mais crescimento econ\u00f3mico).<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\"><br \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\"><br \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\">Andr\u00e9 Marques<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Na sexta-feira passada, a ag\u00eancia declassifica\u00e7\u00e3o de risco Moody\u2019s mante<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":242882,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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