{"id":241889,"date":"2021-09-17T16:52:25","date_gmt":"2021-09-17T15:52:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/elementum.pt\/2021\/09\/17\/bce-pode-aumentar-a-taxa-de-juros-em-2023\/"},"modified":"2022-08-01T12:36:15","modified_gmt":"2022-08-01T11:36:15","slug":"bce-pode-aumentar-a-taxa-de-juros-em-2023__trashed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/elementum.pt\/pt-pt\/bce-pode-aumentar-a-taxa-de-juros-em-2023__trashed\/","title":{"rendered":"BCE Pode Aumentar a Taxa de Juros em 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/elementum.pt\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/bce-1.jpg\" width=\"600\" height=\"250\" alt=\"\" \/><br \/><\/span> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\"><br \/><\/span> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\">O Banco CentralEuropeu (BCE) deve <a href=\"https:\/\/eco.sapo.pt\/2021\/09\/17\/bce-pode-subir-juros-em-2023-mais-cedo-do-que-o-esperado\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">subir a taxa de juros dentro de dois anos e espera atingir ameta de infla\u00e7\u00e3o de pre\u00e7os de 2% em 2025<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\">.Estas informa\u00e7\u00f5es foram <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/0ee1336d-1c7c-43b5-a8ed-f141f31fb70e\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">retiradas do<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/0ee1336d-1c7c-43b5-a8ed-f141f31fb70e\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">&nbsp;Financial Times<\/a>, que teve acesso a documentos internos do BCE.<\/span> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\"><br \/><\/span> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\">O DepositFacility Rate (taxa que os bancos podem utilizar para fazer dep\u00f3sitos overnightno eurosistema) est\u00e1 em -0.5% desde setembro de 2019. E est\u00e1 em patamarnegativo desde junho de 2014. E o balan\u00e7o do BCE est\u00e1 em cerca de \u20ac 8.223 milbilh\u00f5es\/trilh\u00f5es:<\/span> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\"><br \/><\/span> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\"><strong>Figura 1 &#8211; DepositFacility Rate e Balan\u00e7o do BCE (2009-2021)<\/strong><\/span> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/elementum.pt\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/f1-1.png\" width=\"800\" height=\"350\" alt=\"\" \/><br \/><\/span> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:12px;\"><strong>Deposit FacilityRate (Linha Verde, Eixo da Esquerda); Balan\u00e7o do BCE (Linha Laranja, Eixo daDireita).<\/strong><\/span> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:12px;\"><strong>Fonte: St. LouisFed \u2013 Elabora\u00e7\u00e3o Pr\u00f3pria.<\/strong><\/span> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\"><br \/><\/span> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\">Como \u00e9 poss\u00edvelver na figura acima, desde 2015 o BCE nunca diminuiu o tamanho de seu balan\u00e7o.O Fed come\u00e7ou a <a href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEjfTbV8bKdrotqEiEggbt6tl9irb6qooLh6xzyFR9EZtTCmGy_YMT51Y4ZA_JYVPXkjjsqbYb0pM8fF2PjqFMIlzNjDyV_OX1PIBuRRYCGBh77DXRi2KTzzRjHhF9_6xorXJXeSwnNwE4fysx7OZ0HdqbXXlmX-FKs8G5HXNSRzsCSE5uHWGcUT_2SNzA=s730\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">diminuir seu balan\u00e7o no final de 2017 (mas j\u00e1 em setembro de 2019 voltou a aument\u00e1-lo)<\/a>&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/span><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\">e come\u00e7ou a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEh9qupl5W9yzzuP3EwugkptGlZA69ih_u914vvvdOHoDmD44xZuf710ioe8xZWm3fLeT74nXd5xmVkz-_VTSbY_N5ONhh58JsHsYJndQGqE093cEADn_WTwfCatlw61Z7_gQUC4OaKfqzXKG7v6Q4SNljkaTHniA5C8UNjw9KfuGP88iZP33Es-ARsMgg=s730\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">subir os juros em dezembro de 2015 (mas voltou a baix\u00e1-los no primeiro semestre de 2019)<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\">. Em dezembro de 2018 houve <a href=\"https:\/\/schiffgold.com\/key-gold-news\/extraordinary-federal-reserve-policy-began-over-a-year-ago\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">uma quedasignificativa nos \u00edndices de bolsa americanos e em setembro de 2019 houve umacrise no mercado das opera\u00e7\u00f5es compromissadas e o Fed passou a injetar liquidezneste mercado (na pr\u00e1tica, fazendo Quantitative Easing, aumentando seu balan\u00e7o)<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\">.<\/span> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\"><br \/><\/span> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\">Considerando quea zona euro tamb\u00e9m possui <a href=\"https:\/\/www.elementum.pt\/pt\/noticias\/divida-publica-da-zona-euro-atinge-100-5-no-1-trimestre-de-2021\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">governos extremamente endividados<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\">, assim como diversas empresas (incluindo <a href=\"https:\/\/www.elementum.pt\/pt\/noticias\/o-que-sao-as-empresas-zumbi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">empresas zumbi<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\">), tamb\u00e9m h\u00e1 uma depend\u00eancia muito grandede taxas de juro artificialmente baixas, e, portanto, uma grande m\u00e1-aloca\u00e7\u00e3o derecursos. A zona euro est\u00e1 com a taxas de juro negativas h\u00e1 7 anos e \u00e9 dif\u00edcilsaber at\u00e9 que ponto estas podem subir sem provocar grandes percal\u00e7os naeconomia (assim como aconteceu nos EUA em dezembro de 2018 (quando a taxa dejuros estava a 2.5%). Mas n\u00e3o \u00e9 preciso pensar muito para saber que n\u00e3o \u00e9 um patamaralto. Assim como o Fed, o BCE n\u00e3o pode subir muito a taxa de juros semprejudicar a economia (ainda mais do que j\u00e1 est\u00e1).<\/span> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\"><br \/><\/span> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\">A infla\u00e7\u00e3o depre\u00e7os da zona euro <a href=\"https:\/\/www.elementum.pt\/pt\/noticias\/inflacao-de-precos-anual-atinge-3-na-zona-euro-em-agosto\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">atingiu 3% em agosto<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\">, acima da meta de 2%. Em julho, o BCE <a href=\"https:\/\/www.elementum.pt\/pt\/noticias\/bce-divulga-nova-meta-de-inflacao-de-precos\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">divulgou esta nova meta<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\">, que passou a ser um alvo (a seratingido num \u201cprazo m\u00e9dio\u201d, tolerando desvios acima e abaixo) em vez da antigameta de \u201cabaixo, mas pr\u00f3xima a 2%\u201d. Desta forma, o BCE pode justificar umainfla\u00e7\u00e3o de pre\u00e7os mais alta.<\/span> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\"><br \/><\/span> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\">Como afirma oeconomista Frank Hollenbeck<\/span><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\">, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mises.org.br\/article\/1801\/nao-faz-sentido-um-banco-central-ter-metas-de-inflacao\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">n\u00e3o faz sentido um banco central termetas de infla\u00e7\u00e3o<\/a>. A desvaloriza\u00e7\u00e3o da moeda (feita atrav\u00e9s da expans\u00e3omonet\u00e1ria), por menor que seja, gera distor\u00e7\u00f5es na aloca\u00e7\u00e3o de recursos,gerando <a href=\"https:\/\/www.elementum.pt\/pt\/noticias\/os-ciclos-economicos\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ciclos econ\u00f3micos<\/a> <\/span><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\">e impede que haja <a href=\"https:\/\/www.elementum.pt\/pt\/noticias\/a-deflacao-e-seus-beneficios\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">defla\u00e7\u00e3o de pre\u00e7os, oque seria ben\u00e9fico aos indiv\u00edduos<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\">.<\/span> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\"><br \/><\/span> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\">&nbsp;<\/span> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;font-size:18px;\">Andr\u00e9 Marques<\/span> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>O Banco CentralEuropeu (BCE) deve subir a taxa de juros dentro de dois anos<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":241890,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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